Global
Warming in the Public Eye: A Timeline
1904: Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius was, according to NASA,
"the first person to investigate the effect that doubling atmospheric
carbon dioxide would have on global climate."
Arrhenius began studying rapid increases in anthropogenic
human-caused carbon emissions, determining that "the slight
percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere may, by the advances of
industry, be changed to a noticeable degree in the course of a few
centuries."
The unique research of Arrhenius suggested that this increase could be
beneficial, making Earth's climates "more equable" and
stimulating plant growth and food production. Until about 1960, most
scientists thought it implausible that humans could actually affect
average global temperatures.
1950s: Geophysicist Roger Revelle, with the help of Hans Suess,
demonstrated that carbon dioxide levels in the air had increased as a
result of the use of fossil fuels.
1965: Serving on the President's Science Advisory Committee
Panel on Environmental Pollution in 1965, Roger Revelle helped publish the
first high-level government mention of global warming. The book-length
report identified many of the environmental troubles the nation faced, and
mentioned in a "subpanel report" the potential for global
warming by carbon dioxide.
1977: "In 1977 the nonpartisan National Academy of Sciences
issued a study called Energy and Climate, which carefully suggested that
the possibility of global warming 'should lead neither to panic nor to
complacency.' Rather, the study continued, it should 'engender a lively
sense of urgency in getting on with the work of illuminating the issues
that have been identified and resolving the scientific uncertainties that
remain.' As is typical with National Academy studies, the primary
recommendation was for more research." From "Breaking the
Global-Warming Gridlock" by Daniel Sarewitz and Roger Pielke Jr., THE
ATLANTIC, July 2000
Roger Revelle chaired the National Academy Panel, which found that
about forty percent of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide has remained in
the atmosphere, two-thirds from fossil fuel and one-third from the
clearing of forests. It is now known that carbon dioxide is one of the
primary greenhouse gases that contributes to global warming and remains in
the atmosphere for a century.
1980s: Representative Al Gore (D-TN), who had been a student of
Revelle's, co-sponsored the first Congressional hearings to study the
implications of global warming and to encourage the development of
environmental technologies to combat global warming.
1982: Roger Revelle published a widely-read article in
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN addressing the rise in global sea level and the
"relative role played by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets
versus the thermal expansion of the warming surface waters."
1983: The Environmental Protection Agency released a report
detailing some of the possible threats of the anthropogenic emission of
carbon dioxide.
1988: NASA climate scientist James Hansen and his team reported
to Congress on global warming, explaining, "the greenhouse warming
should be clearly identifiable in the 1990s" and that "the
temperature changes are sufficiently large to have major impacts on people
and other parts of the biosphere, as shown by computed changes in the
frequency of extreme events and comparison with previous climate
trends."
With the increased awareness of global warming issues, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the
World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information
relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts
and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC was the first
international effort of this scale to address environmental issues.
1990: Congress passed and President George Bush signed Public
Law 101-606 "The Global Change Research Act of 1990. The purpose of
the legislation was "
to require the establishment of a United
States Global Change Research Program aimed at understanding and
responding to global change, including the cumulative effects of human
activities and natural processes on the environment, to promote
discussions towards international protocols in global change research, and
for other purposes."
As part of the Act, the Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO)
was established "to disseminate to foreign governments, businesses,
and institutions, as well as citizens of foreign countries, scientific
research information available in the United States which would be useful
in preventing, mitigating, or adapting to the effects of global change.
The office began formal operation in 1993.
1992: In June of 1992, over 100 government leaders,
representatives from 170 countries, and some 30,000 participants met in
Rio de Janeiro at the U.N. Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED
or the "Earth Summit"). There, an international assembly
formally recognized the need to integrate economic development and
environmental protection into the goal of sustainable development.
1997: In December, 1997, more than 160 nations met in Kyoto,
Japan, to negotiate binding limitations on greenhouse gases for the
developed nations, pursuant to the objectives of the Framework Convention
on Climate Change of 1992. The outcome of the meeting was the Kyoto
Protocol, in which the developed nations agreed to limit their greenhouse
gas emissions, relative to the levels emitted in 1990. The United States
agreed to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 7 percent during the period
2008 to 2012.
Also that year, the United States Senate unanimously passed the Hagel-Byrd
Resolution notifying the Clinton Administration that the Senate would not
ratify any treaty that would (a) impose mandatory greenhouse gas emissions
reductions for the United States without also imposing such reductions for
developing nations, or (b) result in serious harm to our economy.
2001: The IPCC released its third assessment report, concluding
on the basis of "new and stronger evidence that most of the observed
warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."
They also observed that "the globally averaged surface temperature is
projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius over the period 1990
to 2100."
The same year, President George W. Bush announced that the United
States would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol is now in limbo
until one of the two crucial holdouts Russia or the United States
will ratify the treaty.
2002: The Milan conference of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change was just one in a series of international
meetings to negotiate points of the Kyoto Protocol, and the tension
surrounding the issue brought both scientists and the energy industry to
the table. NOW reported on the conference in "Ode
to Kyoto."
2003: Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and Senator Joseph Lieberman
(D-CT) co-sponsored a proposal for mandatory caps on "greenhouse
gas" emissions from utilities and other industries. Although the
proposal was rejected in the Senate by a margin of 55 to 43, it was the
Senators' first attempt to garner Senate attention for the issue of global
warming, and McCain and Lieberman were encouraged by the support for the
measure.
2004: In August, an annual report by the Climate Change Science
Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research "Our
Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Years
2004 and 2005" was submitted to Congress. In what the NEW
YORK TIMES called a "striking shift in the way the Bush
administration has portrayed the science of climate change," the
report indicated that "emissions of carbon dioxide and other
heat-trapping gases are the only likely explanation for global warming
over the last three decades." Dr. James R. Mahoney, the director of
government climate research, told the NEW YORK TIMES that the studies
mentioned in the new report are "significant but not
definitive."
On September 15, members of the Senate
Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation heard testimony
examining recent scientific research concerning climate change impacts.
Senator John McCain presided, opening the hearing by explaining:
Last month, I visited the Arctic region and saw first hand the impacts
of climate change on the region. These impacts are real and are
consistent with earlier scientific projections that the polar regions
would experience the effects of climate change at a faster rate than the
rest of the globe. The retreating glaciers provide irrefutable evidence
supporting the need to take action on this issue. We cannot continue to
ignore an issue that is not static. We need to take action that extends
well beyond eloquent speeches, and includes meaningful actions such real
reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases.
In late 2004, the Bush Administration came into conflict with the world
community when it appeared to take issue with parts of an eight-nation
report compiled by 250 scientists which contended that the Arctic is
warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the planet due to a buildup of
heat-trapping gases. The U.S. State Department argued that the group
lacked the evidence to prepare detailed policy proposals.
2005: In a January 2005 speech Senator James Inhofe made a speech
on the Senate floor again condemning the idea of global warming as
"the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people."
Inhofe made frequent reference to the fictional work by author Michael
Crichton, best known for the rebirth of dinosaurs in JURASSIC PARK, STATE
OF FEAR in which eco-terrorists engineer disasters to prove their theories
about global warming. (More
about global warming and the international media.)
The Kyoto
Protocol entered into force on February 16, 2005. Industrialized
countries have committed to cut their combined emissions to 5% below 1990
levels by 2008 - 2012. The emissions covered under the treaty are: Carbon
dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons
(PFCs), Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). As of April 19, 2005, 149 states and
regional economic integration organizations have deposited instruments of
ratifications, accessions, approvals or acceptances. (More
about Kyoto.)
SOURCES: United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; CBS News; NASA's Earth
Observatory; Environmental Research Foundation; THE ATLANTIC; SOCIAL
PROBLEMS; Global Change Research Information Office
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